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Posted - Mar 8 2017 : 12:49AM

Yes, we're a long ways, away, but hell let's get it started now.
I thought there was one already. If there is, feel free to deactivate this one.
This caught my eye. I don't agree with all of it, but nevertheless, there's still a lot of uncomfortable truth here:

It is true that we thought, after 2012, that we were invincible as far as the White House goes. The theory was simple: Republicans would continue to nominate horrid candidates, who were repellent to the mainstream of America, and Democrats could nominate anybody and beat said candidate. Well, we were right about the former, but damned wrong about the latter.
Democrats looked at 2004 as probably the lowest point possible for us. But with the successes of 2008 and 2012, we theorized that if we just hung on to those 2004 states, and kept at least Virginia and Florida, everything would be fine.
The lesson of 2016 was not new. When minorities and the cities turn out to vote, Dems win. When they don't, they lose. Miami, Tallahassee, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia could have provided 191,000 votes for a Clinton victory, but the voters needed did not appear.
So that's the Hanging-by-a-thread strategy and Reacting-To-The-Last-Election strategy. That's one aspect, but what also needs to be addressed is the Widening -the- Electoral-Map. Waiting for elderly whites to die off is not a strategy. Trying to oust the Electoral Vote system is futile.
Whoever is in the WH in 2020, be it Trump or Pence, Dems cannot just be against that person. We tried that in 2004 and it didn't work. In fact, the next four years should be spent examing 2004 and what went wrong. They have to be for something too. Goals and proposals that can be easily -EASILY - disseminated and digested.

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Posted - Mar 8 2017 : 1:05AM
You know, it's just another matter of wait and see. I don't know if Trump will be successful, he's just barely in, and still has a lot of challenges. And to be clear, as I have said in other threads he wan't my choice. But now that he is there, I want him to be successful, not for him, but for the country. It just comes down to this. If he gets the economy growing again, he will get re-elected. If he doesn't, he won't. That's all. So talk about it all you want. It will be entertaining to read.
 
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Posted - Mar 28 2017 : 9:20PM
I was about to write this as a continuance of the discussion in the Swamp thread, but since we have this thread already...
Biden will be 78 years in January of 2021. Sanders will be 79. That's not exactly where I see progress for the party.
I have my own ideas about the top of the ticket which may or may not change with the coming years. But one thing I'm ready to say now is that someone on the ticket must be Black. Either Cory Booker or Kamala Harris or another. More African Americans stayed home as opposed to 2012; 88,000 of us coming out in Milwaukee, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Pennslyvania combined would have made all the difference.
Or if 113,000 had come out in Florida, and 200,000 in Georgia, that would have done it.
Of course, I understand that the likeability factor comes out where Biden and Sanders are concerned. But I just personally feel that the likeability must be matched with youth as well.

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Posted - Mar 28 2017 : 9:44PM
I like the idea of Warren and Booker. We'll need people who are incorruptible and youthful.
 
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Posted - Mar 29 2017 : 1:10AM
^ & ^^
Booker will have to provide the youthful component. Warren will be 71 in 2020. Still, that would make her younger than Trump and everything is relative.
El Jefe will be pissed if you don't throw a Hispanic in there as well. Part of being a Democrat is trying to pacify every group.
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Posted - Mar 29 2017 : 10:06AM
There's room for diversity on staff. We will learn again that not every room needs to be full of white-haired white men.
 
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Posted - Apr 27 2017 : 2:20PM
^Aclayfan, sorry for not responding before:
We can absolutely have a Hispanic person on the
There is no doubt that the Hispanic vote is important. It has been a factor in Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia, three formerly red states that stayed blue even in his past election. Added representation in all facets of politics - the state legislatures and Congress, is needed.
But the problem is this, and i's a similar problem with Jews, Asians and Gays; there are simply not enough of them in the states Dems need to win.
Going back to my first post in this thread -- The states where most of those groups are big enough sections of the electorate, is small. H They, of course, exist in all states, but their largest numbers are in states that are already bight blue. To switch it in reverse, states that are deep red, do not attract this kind of diversity and have zero desire to do
But in the Great Lakes states, the demographics work largely in favor of whites: According to 2010 Census totals, Michigan is 79% white; Ohio and Pennsylvania are both 82%; Minnesota is 83%; Wisconsin is 86% white. In these states in the past, there have been just enough old school Dems and African Americans to offset the rural vote. In each of those states in the past election, save MN, we saw what happens if half that equation doesn't turn out.

And then there's the young, usually meaning ages ranging from new college grads to Newlywed/new parents. It is likely their vote can be depended on to be divided in threes: Repub, Dem, and Green/Independent. This group was sketchy and ambiguous in this election and that will probably continue as they are the likeliest age group to go for a Ralph Nader or Jill Stein.
But another characteristic is that youth follow the jobs. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio are shedding the old industrial jobs. Many of the youth that might have gone for Clinton were either turned off by her, or have moved down south.
So a lot depends on getting African Americans out. Black men in particular, stayed home in big numbers across the country.
 
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Posted - Apr 27 2017 : 2:28PM
The National Review says Dems are making the same mistake as in 1972 by moving "further left" and the usual bushwah.
BUT ...
 
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Posted - Apr 27 2017 : 3:16PM
^
Now, Trump is hardly likely to do anything to ingratiate himself with Dems. But the point is, Nixon knew how to campaign and Trump does too. The strategy in 2020 is likely to be the same as in 2016, "OK, you may think I'm a pig and a dumbass, But THAT GUY/GAL IS WORSE"


Edited by - Smiler Grogan on 4/27/2017 3:17:11 PM


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Posted - Apr 27 2017 : 7:09PM
Yes, all of you should get behind Warren. She will motivate the right just as much as Hillary.
 
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Posted - Apr 27 2017 : 7:52PM
^ That's doubtful, as she isn't saddled with the Clinton name, or dogged by their records. Sure, she's easily branded as a liberal, but I don't think the visceral hatred is there. Furthermore, whether a Republican can ride in on Trump's coattails depends upon how the electorate feels about his term at its end, not how his supporters feel about it now.

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Posted - Apr 27 2017 : 8:00PM
Fine, put her up. I want to say you would be better served with a moderate centrist, but they're not winning these days on either side. As I have stated before, I would have prefered Rubio or Kasich to Trump, but Hillary probably would have won over either of them. And the most extreme person on you side was Sanders, and all the polls had him winning hands down way ahead of Hillary. All this extremism on both sides really has me down, I'm going to open a nice bottle of wine and put on the Beatle's White Album and try to remember happier days.
 
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Posted - Apr 27 2017 : 8:36PM
The division of power was our founders answer to extremism. Be sure to toast them while you're tripping down memory lane, glass in hand.

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Posted - Apr 27 2017 : 8:43PM
Glass in hand, the division of powers has become our new extemism, on both sides.

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Posted - Apr 27 2017 : 8:50PM
Extremism.
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Posted - Apr 27 2017 : 8:51PM
You'll have to explain that, tripper.

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Posted - Apr 27 2017 : 9:07PM
Pieps, seriously, you don't believe there is extremism on both sides?

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Posted - Apr 27 2017 : 10:24PM
I don't believe that trying to preserve separation of powers is extremism.
 
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Posted - Apr 27 2017 : 11:03PM
The cynic in my agrees that Kasich would have lost to Clinton but...Trump barely won by the thinnest margin. Thinner than W I believe. It was less his success and more about the Democrats putting up a terrible, terrible candidate against him. Kasich's moderate stance may have had a lot wider appeal to actual blue collar and undecided voters than Trump's blather.
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Posted - May 7 2017 : 9:30AM
I'm not exactly sure which (pick a year here) Election Thread this should go in so I will dump it here. Democrats aren't learning one damn thing from last November.
Edited by - the unknown pervert on 5/7/2017 9:38:06 AM

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Posted - May 7 2017 : 1:11PM

Me, me, me. Who cares about transgender kids, women, and Syrian refugees?
I do.
The protesters are not elitists or paid consultants. We ARE the middle class.
I protest every week, on behalf of the middle class who will never be served by Trump. Trump is all words and bluster. If he ever passes a 'job creation' program, it will consist of giving money to the richest 1%, as if they will then decide to build roads and bridges with it. I protest every week, and I'll do it on behalf of anyone I bloody well please. If they think the protesters are steering the party, they can get off their bar stools and hit the streets and hit the town halls, and then I presume that they (by their own reasoning) will be steering things.
People naturally care about what THEY care about. When our local library group heroically raised the money for a new library, there were people who said they should have fixed the town's water system. Librarians don't fix the water system. When I got a solicitation from an animal protection group for another donation, a lady at the post office said it was wrong to give to animals when there are hungry children. I like dogs. Thanks.
You care about yourself. Other people care about what they care about.
The world doesn't revolve around these guys. There are other people in the world besides them. All the same, the Republicans are the party that fights increases in minimum wage, and the party that tries to gut your retirement, and the party that stopped infrastructure spending--real spending of cash straight to building roads and bridges.
What the protesters see that alarms them is a threat to democracy--eroding separation of powers, trying to consolidate power in one person, a non-representative democracy. What the protesters see that alarms them is a disregard and persecution of people who fall outside of white male privilege, or who aren't 'productive' members of society--the young, the sick, the disabled, the poor and the old. We are ALL young, sick, poor, disabled, or old at some point if we live long enough. If you are a 35 year old able-bodied guy slinging bags of concrete, you won't always be. Think of your dad and your coworker with his failing back. We are.
Trump is not going to fix the stagnant wages and sputtering economies. He's going to TALK about fixing them. Every once in a while he's going to announce that a factory is staying or coming to some area, but the factory is still going to be full of robots.
The coal industry isn't coming back. Natural gas is cheaper.
Corporate interests go where the money is. They go where the people are desperate and can be paid the least, but only after negotiating for the local tax dollars to build their infrastructure, and for a waiver from property taxes for 20 years. The top positions at the company will be filled by people who transfer from their other locations, The locals will be poorly paid. When the tax dollar subsidies and tax breaks run out, the local plant will shut down and move to a town that will tax finance their new location and give them tax breaks. If you don't work on the BIG PICTURE, that's where this is all headed. You can't fix anything by putting one plant somewhere. You have to work on the way profits are, or are not, distributed to the workers who create the profits. This country is headed the wrong way.
Then vote for the party that builds infrastructure by actually voting money for roads and bridges, not tax breaks for the rich. And vote out the bums who stop the spending in favor of tax cuts and deficits.
I assume that's about the one place Trump claims he kept 1,000 jobs, where the company was given a huge amount of tax money to stay? [For the U.S. economy, two hundred thousand jobs per month is a sort of not-spectacular, not bad situation.]
Well, no. What Trump has given you is words. He's saying there's going to be a yuge steak. Really yuge. A fantastic steak. The most beautiful steak you ever saw. I notice the actual steak is on Trump's plate. If you actually had the yuge steak, I assume the complaining would be over.
The world is changing. Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats can change some of that. You can't get the fifties and sixties back. I guess I've now seen that it COULD be possible to go back to something like the actual real Dark Ages, but is it worth it?
Trump is talk and promises. He is, predictably, not delivering on his promises. He's holding rallies. He's delivering talk. Watch. Wait. Look for the big, nationwide thing that makes more middle class jobs.
Do you want talk, or do you want jobs?

Edited by - Pieps on 5/7/2017 2:54:06 PM

 
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Posted - May 7 2017 : 6:56PM

1) There's a lot of blame to go around for Hillary's loss this election; some hers, some the DNC's through years of neglect at the state level.
2) A party tends to define itself via the opposition; That is not new. In these early stages it's to be expected.
3) Trump fired up the base in these areas with LIES. The kind of jobs they are looking for in places like Youngstown are NOT COMING BACK. Trump puffed his chest a lot, cried his crocodile tears, collected his votes and has promptly proceeded to reward the billionaire class. There are tons of jobs out there, some in manufacturing, but far, far more in more advanced disciplines. Democrats should not sink to the Trump Level
4) They definitely DO need to start staking a claim to issues important to their constituency, especially the millennials and African-Americans who stayed home/voted for Jill Stein last year.
Rents and home costs in the biggest cities for one thing. Marijuana legalisation. Civil Rights enforcement. Anger is fine, but it has to be backed up by a differentiation between parties issues and priorities.
 
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Posted - May 31 2017 : 9:17PM
Hillary needs to go away.
This may help:
 
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Posted - Jun 1 2017 : 1:20AM
Slate:
 
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Posted - Jun 1 2017 : 4:30AM
^
Only as a Veep - And I wouldn't try that till at least 2024.
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Posted - Jun 7 2017 : 9:03PM
Dwayne Johnson might run...thoughts?

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Posted - Jun 7 2017 : 9:35PM
^I like The Rock as a celebrity, but I wish he'd shut his fucking pie hole about the presidency. The lesson we are unfortunately learning over the last few months is that it's not a figurehead position. The person who takes this office needs to be well-versed in both domestic and foreign policy. They need to have a deep understanding of the history of our country and the inner workings of our government. Also, we need to recognize what would happen to our country's reputation if The Rock became a nominee of a major party - we'd be a joke to the rest of the world. Again.
That said, he'd be 10 times better at being president as Trump is now. We need more than that, though.
 
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Posted - Jul 3 2017 : 10:05AM
 
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Posted - Jul 3 2017 : 10:16AM
 
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Posted - Jul 4 2017 : 1:17AM
Chicken or egg?
If you're under 60 then the Congress really doesn't give a rat's ass about you. Well, unless you're a substantial campaign donor, then you're right up there with God.
Not being God's right hand man, I can personally attest to the fact that whatever issue you write your Congressman about will be handled by a bored staffer whose job it is to determine whether or not you're a campaign contributor. If yes, send the letter up the chain of command for individual treatment. In no, stuff your issue/concern into whatever box of the Congressman's existing agenda/platform seems appropriate and fire off a form letter in reply. In my case, the result of this approach was that I got a letter back espousing the Congressman's dedication to supporting the institution that was screwing me around. Yes, thank you, Congressman. I'll be voting for the village idiot before I vote for you.
"But, will that matter?", you ask. No, not really, because his party has already gerrymandered the electoral map to insure the odds are heavily in their favor.

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Posted - Jul 4 2017 : 2:01PM
Democrats are doomed in 2018 because they are unable to turn out their base, and considering the efforts of voter suppression of minorities and young peopl in red states, I have very little hope that Congress will change in 2018, especially after the whole Ossoff thing.
2010 midterm elections was when the Democratic party basically wrote its death sentence, along with the people people who couldn't even be bothered to come out and vote (10% turnout, really?!)

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Posted - Jul 4 2017 : 4:11PM
I don't bother much with predictions and analysis. It doesn't often prove right. Shit happens that nobody expected, and I don't just mean Trump. We are SO not even close to 2020, no matter how early the campaigning starts.

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Posted - Jul 6 2017 : 5:52AM
Does anyone else remember this: after Obama took office, he was travelling so badly that not only was it being stated that he would not win the next election, it was claimed that he could be challenged prior to the election, and may not even be the Democrat nominee?
Edited by - Simple Simon on 7/6/2017 5:54:31 AM
 
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Posted - Jul 6 2017 : 7:59PM
^
You should really stop listening to the right wing propaganda department, because the only ones who hated him were .

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Posted - Jul 7 2017 : 5:01AM
^ FlacFan, can we stay away from the labels; if someone is stating crap, just say they're talking crap.
Regarding who was saying what during the early parts of Obama's presidency, my memories are it was supporters of HRC who were saying such things.
But all I'm trying to say is, predicting what will happen in a federal election that is over three years away, is basically pointless.
 
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Posted - Jul 7 2017 : 8:41AM
^
Of course. However the left is already proving that they are as dis-functional as they have always been. Pelosi and others are not going to help matters.
Oh and Hillary? Go home. It's over. You're done.
 
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Posted - Jul 7 2017 : 11:20AM
As I said back in 2013, what fun is it if we can't engage in pointless speculation every once in a while?

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Posted - Jul 7 2017 : 7:04PM
^ From that 2016 Election thread in 2013:
"Kind of a stupid exercise to undertake. Who all had Obama as the Democratic nominee in the summer of 2005?" (TUP).
(Sorry to keep bringing them up.) Well, certainly not the individual who thought it would be themself. And in reality, that experience was probably the reason they campaigned the way they did in 2016.
Edited by - Simple Simon on 7/9/2017 6:51:04 AM
 
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Posted - Aug 2 2017 : 9:23PM
Talked about this in the Trump Watch thread, but gonna add in a note here too:
Last week it was the ban on Transgenders, this week it's a crackdown on Legal Immigration, with the Repeal of Obamacare still at the top of his agenda.
The Legal Immigration issue is probably DOA, and the transgender ban could get tied up in court for years. Repeal has become a laughing stock.
Doesn't matter. None of it matters. Trump is doing most of this stuff with a constant eye on 2020.
1) All of this forceful stuff makes him look strong. Appearances are everything with both his base, and a large section of the right -leaning independents. They think "at least he's done something" and "at least he believes in his policies"
2) Many people will actually believe he has actually accomplished all these things. They believe he's "accomplished more in his first six months than any president ever"
As long as he and the Republicans can command the newscycles, it's another deposit in the 2020 Bank.
 
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Posted - Aug 2 2017 : 10:36PM

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Posted - Aug 2 2017 : 11:22PM
Can't wait for Queen Kardashian.

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Posted - Aug 26 2017 : 7:43PM
 
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Posted - Aug 26 2017 : 9:26PM
Johnson/Foley - 2020 - The Rock And Sock Connection!
 
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Posted - Sep 15 2017 : 9:50AM
 
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Posted - Sep 15 2017 : 12:15PM
^
There has been talk of such a law here in MA. There has been debate as to whether requiring the release of a presidential candidate's tax returns is unconstitutional.
 
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Posted - Sep 15 2017 : 12:39PM
Once you're running for public office, you're no longer a private citizen. Numerous jobs require drug tests. Own a bar? You need to be fingerprinted.
 
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Posted - Sep 15 2017 : 4:12PM
Want to own a gun in any state? CBG
Want to play a sport? Drug test
Want to get a job, anywhere? Companies have started asking for them to verify income.
Employers can required potential hires to take a mental health exam to assure fitness.
How come none of these is demanded of our politicians?
 
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Posted - Sep 16 2017 : 2:18AM
^ & ^^
The legal question revolves around whether states can add requirements for presidential candidates not specified in the US Constitution. It wouldn't be a huge surprise if the matter ends up in the federal court system.
 
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Posted - Sep 16 2017 : 2:42AM
^
Oh I completely agree
I was just pointing out the disparity that those things are required for lesser things, but not for the ability to end the world.

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Posted - Jan 8 2018 : 7:06PM
Shit. Oprah makes a very inspirational speech at the Golden Globes and now she's "actively thinking" about a 2020 presidential campaign.
I've always felt that the two types of people who are probably not suited to be President of the US are business leaders and celebrities. Oprah is both.
Business leaders are used to getting their way almost all the time. They create plans, communicate it to their subordinates, then expect that everyone will work to carry it out. They rarely have to schmooze with the people who work with them to gain their cooperation. In a business, the marching orders always start at the top. While business leaders may experience push-back from their board of directors from time to time, the relationship between a CEO and their board is generally pretty close, as the board members are probably the ones who gave the executive his/her job in the first place.
A US President isn't given this sort of latitude. Other than their own staff, a US President really doesn't have much power over the people he/she works with. The President can't force congress to do a thing. That sort of working relationship would frustrate most business leaders. It even frustrated Trump, and his party has a majority in the House and Senate.
Celebrities as presidential candidates are even worse than business leaders. Despite the downsides of having a business leader as President, at least most business leaders have probably spent years having to navigate their companies through tough legal and regulatory obstacles. Few celebrities even have that sort of experience. Celebrities are used to being surrounded by people who constantly tell them how great they are. People give them things, or themselves, to get into a celebrity's good graces. While I'm certain celebrities face their own unique challenges, their challenges are very different from ordinary Americans. They live their lives inside of a weird bubble. They rarely have to speak with regular people.
I hope the candidates on both sides in 2020 have at least a decade of experience in politics or the military. I want to see candidates who have spent many years learning how government works from the inside. I want to see candidates who have sacrificed their time and efforts to be President, and when they're in office, I want for them to truly appreciate what an honor it is to serve, and not expect to be served.
Being the President of the US is probably one of the toughest jobs in the world. We learned our lesson with Trump. We should never elect a celebrity into the highest office ever again.
edit: I would be more than willing to vote for Oprah or The Rock for President if they gave up their celebrity careers, and ran for a lower office first. That'd show me that they were serious about really learning how to make a true difference, rather than just cashing in on their celebrity.
Edited by - Macko69 on 1/8/2018 7:12:59 PM
 
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Posted - Jan 8 2018 : 8:54PM
^
Here's the thing:
Would Oprah be great at CAMPAIGNING for President? Sure.
But that's how we got the current doofus. Because of campaigning rather than substance.
Once we get past the bread and circuses, there's REAL WORK to be done once in office. We have now seen the disastrous consequences of an unprepared person coming into the Oval Office with not a whiff of experience in the arena. Is Oprah ready for that? I doubt it.
Sure Oprah is highly intelligent, more so than the current occupant of the seat. (But then, so is the half-eaten chili dog sitting on my counter right now.)
I want a boring, wonky, bookworms in office, not people who desire camera time and big crowds.
Al Gore was not a great campaigner. Neither was John Kerry. But I never doubted either of them had the ability to do the job. But because they didn't "electrify" the electorate, they lost by slim margins.
Sadly, it seems as though (and maybe I'm wrong) this television-oriented society that stays buried in their smartphones and reads actual books less and less with each passing year, and knows less and less about history and foreign affairs than ever, will continue to seek presidents who are "magnetic" and are "rock stars"
If i want to see a "rock star" I will go to Coachella or Lolapalooza. And that goes for anyone on either side of the political spectrum.
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